The Two-Tier League

🔥 The Brushback

The Two-Tier League Is Already Here

Regional sports networks are dying.

Teams are scrambling.

That's the story you've heard.

Here's what you haven't:

This isn't just about your cable bill. It's a power shift that's quietly redrawing the map of baseball — determining who competes and who treads water for the next decade.

The Old Debate Is Dead

For decades, we argued about payrolls.

Who spent. Who didn't. Who could.

That frame is obsolete.

The new dividing line isn't spending power — it's distribution control.

And that gap? It's a canyon now.

This Isn't Temporary

Most people assume the RSN collapse is a messy transition — a rough patch until MLB "figures something out."

That's the comfortable read.

It's also completely wrong.

By Opening Day 2026, 16 of MLB's 30 teams will take the field without a traditional local cable deal — a revenue stream that historically delivered 25% of their annual income.

When a quarter of your revenue evaporates overnight, the fallout doesn't show up in box scores first.

It shows up in front offices.

In meetings where timelines compress. Where priorities narrow. Where the safest decision starts to feel like the only smart one.

Question: Do the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal if they don't have cable money locked in?

The pressure doesn't land evenly.

The Two-Tier Reality

Big-market teams have cushions.

When one revenue stream falters, they don't panic. They patch the hole with sponsorships, global branding, or owners willing to absorb red ink for a season.

They can wait. They can be patient. They can do nothing at all.

Smaller and mid-market teams?

They don't have that luxury.

They operate defensively — not because ambition died, but because uncertainty kills ambition first.

That's how a two-tier league crystallizes.

The Imbalance Is Already Here

The Dodgers have 25 years of TV money locked in.

The Cardinals — a model franchise, a stability icon — have none.

For the first time in memory, even St. Louis is leaning on revenue sharing.

This isn't cosmetic. It's structural.

Secure media money doesn't just enable spending.

It enables risk.

It lets teams think long-term. Absorb mistakes. Stay aggressive when plans go sideways.

Uncertainty does the opposite.

It makes free agency conservative. It shortens competitive windows. It filters out risk before it even gets debated.

MLB's "Stabilization" Is a Red Flag

Since 2023, MLB has taken control of broadcasts for multiple clubs, calling it stabilization.

Short-term? Sure.

Long-term? It's a signal:

The local media model that once balanced the league is broken. And it's not coming back.

As that foundation crumbles, pressure builds everywhere else — on revenue sharing, payroll rules, and eventually labor negotiations.

This isn't a side issue heading into the next CBA.

It's the central tension.

Once financial disparity hardens, the arguments write themselves:

Payroll floors. Salary caps. Endless fights over "competitive balance" — all while half the league shows up without real financial certainty.

Acceleration Favors the Strong

The RSN collapse isn't creating imbalance.

It's accelerating it.

And acceleration favors one group: teams that entered this moment with leverage intact.

As MLB centralizes production, distribution, and fan relationships, power shifts away from the local level toward scale.

Scale favors stable brands. Stable brands absorb risk. Risk tolerance is competitive advantage.

This is why you can't dismiss the RSN collapse as a consumer inconvenience.

Yes, fans feel it when they can't find games.

But they also feel it in rosters that never quite come together. Seasons that stall instead of surge.

The deeper damage is structural:

Some teams can still think long-term in a sport that increasingly punishes hesitation.

Others are being nudged into survival mode — one season at a time.

Competitive Balance Doesn't Vanish Overnight

It tilts.

And once it tilts far enough, it doesn't snap back

— Box